AGMWashing my John-son · 12 teams · PPR
Week 9 scouting report

Washing my John-sonvsNabers in Paris

5-3 against 5-3. Zach has $21 FAAB left of $100; Kev have $62. NFL data runs through week 9.

  1. Top RB add: Kenny Gainwell (TB), 16 opportunities/g over the last 3; bid $4 of $21.
  2. Stream Lions D/ST (vs MIA, the No. 5 weakest offense by the composite).
  3. Derrick Henry (BAL RB): 49% of snaps over the last 3 games (was 58%), 31% touch share (was 40%), 8 PPR/g.

1 · Storylines

What moved

Zach's RB, WR and TE: touch share, last 3 games vs before

  • BALDerrick HenryRB Down
    share−8.7 pts
    49% of snaps over the last 3 games (was 58%), 31% touch share (was 40%), 8 PPR/g
  • CINJa'Marr ChaseWR Up
    share+13.6 pts
    90% of snaps over the last 3 games (was 75%), 34% target share (was 20%), 27 PPR/g
  • DETJameson WilliamsWR Up
    share+5.6 pts
    83% of snaps over the last 3 games (was 90%), 21% target share (was 15%), 16 PPR/g
  • PHIDallas GoedertTE Up
    share+4.5 pts
    78% of snaps over the last 3 games (was 45%), 17% target share (was 13%), 9 PPR/g
  • CARJalen CokerWR Up
    share−5.4 pts
    79% of snaps over the last 3 games (was 53%), 14% target share (was 19%), 6 PPR/g
  • CLEDenzel BostonWR Up
    share+5.2 pts
    88% of snaps over the last 3 games (was 92%), 25% target share (was 20%), 10 PPR/g
  • WASAntonio WilliamsWR Up
    share+3.2 pts
    78% of snaps over the last 3 games (was 52%), 18% target share (was 14%), 8 PPR/g
  • LVMike Washington Jr.RB Up
    share+12.4 pts
    40% of snaps over the last 3 games (was 20%), 23% touch share (was 11%), 4 PPR/g; includes a 26% snap game in week 7
  • LADavante AdamsWRInjured
    sharenot reported
    no snaps in the last 3 games
  • NOTravis Etienne Jr.RBInjured
    sharenot reported
    no snaps in the last 3 games
  • DENRJ HarveyRBInjured
    share−11.7 pts
    8% of snaps over the last 3 games (was 34%), 3% touch share (was 15%), 14 PPR/g
  • LATerrance FergusonTEInjured
    sharenot reported
    no snaps in the last 3 games
  • CHILuther Burden IIIWR Flat
    share+0.3 pts
    58% of snaps over the last 3 games (was 60%), 22% target share (was 22%), 21 PPR/g
  • KCEmmett JohnsonRB Flat
    share−0.5 pts
    25% of snaps over the last 3 games (was 27%), 9% touch share (was 9%), 13 PPR/g

Who is gaining in those rooms

  • Rising Justice Hill is gaining in the BAL RB room: 19% of team opportunities over the last 3 (was 9%), 49% snaps; on waivers
  • Rising Jonah Coleman is gaining in the DEN RB room: 29% of team opportunities over the last 3 (was 4%), 65% snaps; rostered by SST
  • Rising Van Jefferson is gaining in the WAS WR room: 5% of team opportunities over the last 3 (was 0%), 23% snaps; on waivers

Play-caller tendencies, neutral early downs

  • DETDan Campbell47% passPROE −5.1DET (Dan Campbell): 47% pass in neutral early downs, PROE -5.1; last 3: 42% (PROE -10.0), steady
  • LVKlint Kubliak48% passPROE −2.1LV (Klint Kubliak): 48% pass in neutral early downs, PROE -2.1; last 3: 40% (PROE -7.9), run-leaning drift
  • CLETodd Monken50% passPROE +1.6CLE (Todd Monken): 50% pass in neutral early downs, PROE +1.6; last 3: 43% (PROE -5.4), run-leaning drift
  • PHINick Sirianni48% passPROE −3.1PHI (Nick Sirianni): 48% pass in neutral early downs, PROE -3.1; last 3: 45% (PROE -3.7), steady
  • BALJesse Minter41% passPROE −6.5BAL (Jesse Minter): 41% pass in neutral early downs, PROE -6.5; last 3: 47% (PROE -2.4), pass-leaning drift
  • NOKellen Moore51% passPROE −0.9NO (Kellen Moore): 51% pass in neutral early downs, PROE -0.9; last 3: 53% (PROE +0.3), steady
  • DENSean Payton54% passPROE +0.3DEN (Sean Payton): 54% pass in neutral early downs, PROE +0.3; last 3: 53% (PROE +0.7), steady
  • WASDan Quinn46% passPROE −2.4WAS (Dan Quinn): 46% pass in neutral early downs, PROE -2.4; last 3: 51% (PROE +1.7), steady
  • CARDave Canales58% passPROE +7.1CAR (Dave Canales): 58% pass in neutral early downs, PROE +7.1; last 3: 54% (PROE +1.8), steady
  • CHIBen Johnson49% passPROE −1.2CHI (Ben Johnson): 49% pass in neutral early downs, PROE -1.2; last 3: 56% (PROE +5.6), pass-leaning drift
  • LASean McVay61% passPROE +6.4LA (Sean McVay): 61% pass in neutral early downs, PROE +6.4; last 3: 60% (PROE +8.4), steady
  • KCAndy Reid54% passPROE +5.4KC (Andy Reid): 55% pass in neutral early downs, PROE +5.4; last 3: 59% (PROE +11.0), steady
  • CINZac Taylor63% passPROE +11.8CIN (Zac Taylor): 63% pass in neutral early downs, PROE +11.8; last 3: 65% (PROE +16.2), steady

Injuries on Zach's roster and who absorbs the work

  • injured reserveLADavante AdamsWR
    work goes to Puka Nacua 24% opp share, rostered by BBL; Tutu Atwell 5% opp share, on waivers
  • questionableCHILuther Burden IIIWR
    work goes to Rome Odunze 10% opp share, rostered by NNT; Kalif Raymond 7% opp share, on waivers
  • injured reserveNOTravis Etienne Jr.RB
    work goes to Kendre Miller 19% opp share, free agent; Alvin Kamara 18% opp share, rostered by SST
  • injured reserveDENRJ HarveyRB
    work goes to Jonah Coleman 29% opp share, rostered by SST; J.K. Dobbins 11% opp share, on waivers
  • questionableKCPatrick MahomesQB
    work goes to Justin Fields 1% opp share, on waivers
  • injured reserveLATerrance FergusonTE
    work goes to Tyler Higbee 5% opp share, rostered by CSW; Colby Parkinson 5% opp share, on waivers

Neutral: win probability 20 to 80%, outside the last two minutes of a half. PROE is pass rate over expected, in points; bars share one scale centred on zero. Touch share counts carries plus targets.

2 · The Browns rule

D/ST streams

  • DETLions D/STwaivers · 38% ownedSTREAM
    Wk 9 at MIAweakness rank #5
    Opp EPA/play −0.08 · sacks+giveaways 12.8% of dropbacks · 1.72 pts/drive
  • ARICardinals D/STwaivers · 1% owned
    Wk 9 at SEAweakness rank #11
    Opp EPA/play −0.13 · sacks+giveaways 8.8% of dropbacks · 1.98 pts/drive
  • PHIEagles D/STwaivers · 34% owned
    Wk 9 vs NYGweakness rank #14
    Opp EPA/play +0.01 · sacks+giveaways 11.2% of dropbacks · 1.98 pts/drive
  • GBPackers D/STwaivers · 19% owned
    Wk 9 at NEweakness rank #18
    Opp EPA/play +0.08 · sacks+giveaways 11.2% of dropbacks · 2.05 pts/drive
  • CARPanthers D/STwaivers · 8% owned
    Wk 9 vs DENweakness rank #20
    Opp EPA/play +0.02 · sacks+giveaways 5.5% of dropbacks · 1.84 pts/drive
  • WASCommanders D/STwaivers · 16% owned
    Wk 9 vs LAweakness rank #22
    Opp EPA/play +0.05 · sacks+giveaways 6.8% of dropbacks · 2.12 pts/drive
  • LACChargers D/STwaivers · 9% owned
    Wk 9 vs HOUweakness rank #23
    Opp EPA/play +0.01 · sacks+giveaways 6.5% of dropbacks · 2.34 pts/drive
  • MIADolphins D/STwaivers · 1% owned
    Wk 9 vs DETweakness rank #26
    Opp EPA/play +0.03 · sacks+giveaways 7.4% of dropbacks · 2.69 pts/drive
  • INDColts D/STwaivers · 2% owned
    Wk 9 vs DALweakness rank #27
    Opp EPA/play +0.05 · sacks+giveaways 5.9% of dropbacks · 2.66 pts/drive
  • BALRavens D/STwaivers · 47% owned
    Wk 9 vs JAXweakness rank #28
    Opp EPA/play +0.16 · sacks+giveaways 7.6% of dropbacks · 2.64 pts/drive
  • DENBroncos D/STrosteredZACH'S D/ST
    Wk 9 at CARweakness rank #19
    Opp EPA/play +0.04 · sacks+giveaways 10.3% of dropbacks · 2.17 pts/drive

Ranked by this week's opponent. Bars run on one scale: #1 is the weakest of 32 offenses on a composite of neutral EPA per play, sacks plus giveaways per dropback and points per drive. The lighter bar is next week.

3 · Injury watch

Starters hurt, and their handcuffs

  • outTENCarnell TateWR · Kev (opponent) · 11.0 PPR/gOPPONENT
    Next up: Wan'Dale Robinson 12% opp share, QB1; Elic Ayomanor 8% opp share, free agent
  • questionableKCPatrick MahomesQB · Zach · 17.7 PPR/gZACH
    Next up: Justin Fields 1% opp share, waivers
  • injured reserveLADavante AdamsWR · Zach · 17.0 PPR/gZACH
    Next up: Puka Nacua 24% opp share, BBL; Tutu Atwell 5% opp share, waivers
  • questionableCHILuther Burden IIIWR · Zach · 15.1 PPR/gZACH
    Next up: Rome Odunze 10% opp share, NNT; Kalif Raymond 7% opp share, waivers
  • injured reserveNOTravis Etienne Jr.RB · Zach · 9.6 PPR/gZACH
    Next up: Kendre Miller 19% opp share, free agent; Alvin Kamara 18% opp share, SST
  • doubtfulLAPuka NacuaWR · BBL · 24.8 PPR/g
    Next up: Tutu Atwell 5% opp share, waivers; Konata Mumpfield 3% opp share, waivers
  • injured reserveBALLamar JacksonQB · LOL · 15.8 PPR/g
    Next up: Joe Fagnano 4% opp share, waivers; Tyler Huntley 2% opp share, waivers
  • outSFMike EvansWR · LOL · 15.5 PPR/g
    Next up: Jordan Watkins 6% opp share, waivers; Brandin Cooks 4% opp share, waivers
  • outARIMichael WilsonWR · TPIR · 13.4 PPR/g
    Next up: Kendrick Bourne 4% opp share, waivers; Reggie Virgil 3% opp share, waivers
  • questionableNERhamondre StevensonRB · Bob · 12.3 PPR/g
    Next up: Corey Kiner 12% opp share, waivers; TreVeyon Henderson 3% opp share, Kev (opponent)
  • outNYGCam SkatteboRB · QB1 · 10.1 PPR/g
    Next up: Devin Singletary 20% opp share, Kev (opponent); Tyrone Tracy Jr. 9% opp share, waivers
  • outSFDeebo Samuel Sr.WR · CSW · 9.3 PPR/g
    Next up: Jordan Watkins 6% opp share, waivers; Brandin Cooks 4% opp share, waivers
  • questionableDENJaylen WaddleWR · LOL · 8.7 PPR/g
    Next up: Courtland Sutton 11% opp share, NNT; Marvin Mims 7% opp share, waivers
  • questionableLACLadd McConkeyWR · BBL · 8.6 PPR/g
    Next up: KeAndre Lambert-Smith 8% opp share, waivers; Quentin Johnston 7% opp share, waivers
  • questionableKCXavier WorthyWR · Bob · 8.3 PPR/g
    Next up: Rashee Rice 9% opp share, CSW; Cyrus Allen 4% opp share, waivers
  • injured reserveMIADe'Von AchaneRB · TPIR · 8.2 PPR/g
    Next up: Ollie Gordon 41% opp share, LOL; Jaylen Wright 6% opp share, waivers
  • questionableWASChig OkonkwoTE · DHD · 7.1 PPR/g
    Next up: John Bates 1% opp share, free agent; Colson Yankoff 1% opp share, free agent
  • outNEA.J. BrownWR · DHD · 6.4 PPR/g
    Next up: DeMario Douglas 10% opp share, QB1; Efton Chism 7% opp share, waivers
  • outDALJake FergusonTE · BBL · 6.1 PPR/g
    Next up: Brevyn Spann-Ford 5% opp share, waivers; James Mitchell 0% opp share, free agent
  • outPHIDeVonta SmithWR · SST · 17.2 PPR/g
    Next up: Makai Lemon 15% opp share, DHD; Darius Cooper 10% opp share, SST
  • outNYJGarrett WilsonWR · SST · 14.2 PPR/g
    Next up: Adonai Mitchell 12% opp share, Bob; Omar Cooper 10% opp share, PROB
  • outDALGeorge PickensWR · LOL · 13.0 PPR/g
    Next up: CeeDee Lamb 20% opp share, QB1; Ryan Flournoy 6% opp share, SST
  • questionableMIAMalik WillisQB · TPIR · 12.9 PPR/g
    Next up: no backup data
  • outPHIDontayvion WicksWR · LOL · 8.9 PPR/g
    Next up: Makai Lemon 15% opp share, DHD; Darius Cooper 10% opp share, SST
  • injured reserveWASTerry McLaurinWR · Bob · 8.8 PPR/g
    Next up: Stefon Diggs 11% opp share, TPIR; Antonio Williams 11% opp share, Zach
  • injured reservePITMichael Pittman Jr.WR · NNT · 5.3 PPR/g
    Next up: D.K. Metcalf 15% opp share, PROB; Germie Bernard 12% opp share, CSW

Starter: 50% or more of snaps in games played. Backups are the next two at the position by opportunity share over the last 3 games.

4 · Waiver adds

RB and TE adds

RB

  • TBKenny Gainwellwaivers Trendingsuggested bid $4
    $4 of $2116.0 opp/g
    was 6.0 opp/g · snaps 39% (+3) · 11.1 PPR/g
  • FAKendre MillerFA Trendingsuggested bid $4
    $4 of $2111.7 opp/g
    was 7.0 opp/g · snaps 26% (+6) · 7.4 PPR/g
  • LACKimani Vidalwaivers Trendingsuggested bid $2
    $2 of $2110.3 opp/g
    was 4.4 opp/g · snaps 40% (+16) · 5.5 PPR/g
  • BALJustice Hillwaivers Trendingsuggested bid $2
    $2 of $2110.0 opp/g
    was 5.2 opp/g · snaps 49% (+7) · 10.7 PPR/g
  • PHIElijah Mitchellwaiverssuggested bid $2
    $2 of $2110.3 opp/g
    was not reported opp/g · snaps 40% (not reported) · 6.6 PPR/g
  • WASAustin Ekelerwaivers Trendingsuggested bid $2
    $2 of $217.3 opp/g
    was 2.0 opp/g · snaps 29% (+22) · 3.9 PPR/g

TE

  • SEAAJ Barnerwaiverssuggested bid $4
    $4 of $216.7 opp/g
    was 4.2 opp/g · snaps 82% (−8) · 9.3 PPR/g
  • LACCharlie Kolarwaivers Trendingsuggested bid $2
    $2 of $214.7 opp/g
    was 1.4 opp/g · snaps 65% (+27) · 4.8 PPR/g
  • NEEli Raridonwaivers Trendingsuggested bid $2
    $2 of $214.7 opp/g
    was 2.0 opp/g · snaps 68% (+25) · 8.1 PPR/g
  • MIAGreg Dulcichwaiverssuggested bid $2
    $2 of $215.0 opp/g
    was 3.4 opp/g · snaps 66% (−2) · 8.4 PPR/g
  • NYJMason Taylorwaiverssuggested bid $2
    $2 of $214.3 opp/g
    was 2.0 opp/g · snaps 62% (+21) · 10.1 PPR/g
  • TENGunnar HelmFAsuggested bid $2
    $2 of $214.3 opp/g
    was 2.6 opp/g · snaps 73% (−5) · 6.0 PPR/g

Bids are a share of the $21 left: 20, 10 or 5% by tier of opportunities per game over the last 3, else $1. Ranked by recent opportunities plus half the trend. The tick on the lighter bar is the earlier rate.

5 · Trade flags

Sell high, buy low

Sell high on Zach's roster

  • SELLCHILuther Burden IIIWR
    21.0 PPR/g last 3 vs 15.1 season; touch share +0 pts; 29% of recent points from TDs. Needs a WR: Kev, NNT, LOL, SST, DHD, Bob.
  • SELLKCEmmett JohnsonRB
    12.8 PPR/g last 3 vs 7.6 season; touch share −0 pts; 31% of recent points from TDs. Needs a RB: Kev, LOL, TPIR, Bob.

Buy low at RB and TE

  • BUYSFGeorge KittleTE · BobOWNER DEEP
    8.3 opp/g (+2.7), 14.2 PPR/g last 3 vs 14.3. Owner needs: RB, WR.
  • BUYDETJahmyr GibbsRB · PROB
    27.7 opp/g (−0.1), 18.5 PPR/g last 3 vs 26.0. Owner needs: nothing.
  • BUYDALJavonte WilliamsRB · CSW
    25.3 opp/g (+7.5), 16.9 PPR/g last 3 vs 17.7. Owner needs: nothing.
  • BUYATLBijan RobinsonRB · NNT
    23.7 opp/g (+0.7), 16.7 PPR/g last 3 vs 19.8. Owner needs: WR.
  • BUYCHID'Andre SwiftRB · Kev
    23.0 opp/g (+3.8), 16.7 PPR/g last 3 vs 17.1. Owner needs: RB, WR.
  • BUYCLEDylan SampsonRB · BBL
    10.7 opp/g (+10.7), 10.5 PPR/g last 3 vs 10.5. Owner needs: QB, TE.
  • BUYMINJordan MasonRB · NNT
    8.3 opp/g (+4.6), 4.4 PPR/g last 3 vs 6.9. Owner needs: WR.
  • BUYINDTyler WarrenTE · DHD
    5.7 opp/g (−0.8), 7.1 PPR/g last 3 vs 12.0. Owner needs: WR.

Startable depth by team

TeamQBRBWRTENeeds
Kev1112RB, WR
QB10230QB, TE
NNT1212WR
LOL1110RB, WR, TE
GAF0141QB, RB
CSW2321none
TPIR0141QB, RB
PROB1232none
BBL0220QB, TE
SST2410WR, TE
DHD2211WR
Bob2102RB, WR

Startable: healthy and top 12 QB, 24 RB, 30 WR or 12 TE by PPR per game (3 or more games). Needs: fewer startable than lineup slots, flex ignored.